Short answer
Check a research claim by its source, not its summary: know what kind of source it is (official, public page, your records or model inference), how old it is, whether the passage really says it, whether it is about your market, and how many independent places say it.
Why the sources matter more than the summary
A research report reads well whether its sources are strong or weak. The summary is written the same way either way — that is the problem. Before you spend money or time on what a report says, spend ten minutes on what it rests on.
You don't need to be a researcher to do this. You need five questions, asked about every claim you plan to act on: what kind of source is it, how old is it, does it really say this, is it about your market, and how many independent places say it.
Question 1: What kind of source is it?
Not all sources can carry the same weight. Sort each one before you read it:
| Kind | Example | What it can show | What it can't |
|---|---|---|---|
| Official document | A law on EUR-Lex, a tax authority page | What a rule says, on the date it was checked | Whether it applies to your exact case — that may need a specialist |
| Public webpage | A competitor's price page, a forum thread | What that page said when it was read | That it is typical, current or true for everyone |
| Your own records | Interview notes, replies, payments | What happened with the people you contacted | What strangers would do |
| Model inference | "Small shops would probably pay…" | A reasoned guess to test | Anything at all as a fact |
A report that mixes these without labels is asking you to trust it. A good report tells you which is which — and never presents a guess as a fact.
Question 2: How old is it?
Different claims go stale at different speeds. A price page from six months ago may be wrong today; a statistic from last year may still be fine. A practical rule of thumb:
| Claim | Treat as stale after |
|---|---|
| A price | about 3 months |
| A business exists, or a contact route | about 6 months |
| A complaint or a request | about 12 months |
| A market statistic | about 24 months |
| A rule or law | re-check every 6 months, or when a change is announced |
If a page has no date at all, don't treat it as current. "Unknown age" is an honest label, not a weakness of the report — the weakness would be pretending to know.
Question 3: Does the passage really say this?
Open the source and find the sentence the claim rests on. Then compare:
- Is the number the same? "40 € a month" and "40 € a week" are different businesses.
- Is the scope the same? "Some shops in Köln" is not "every shop in Germany".
- Is it a quote, a paraphrase or a translation? A translation is useful, but it is not the person's own words.
If you can't find the passage, the claim isn't supported by that source — however official the link looks.
Question 4: Is it about your market?
A source on a .fr site about Lyon tells you about Lyon. A country domain is a hint, not a proof, but a page that is clearly about another country, currency or rule set doesn't confirm anything for yours. When the market matters (prices, rules, buyer habits), look for at least one source from where you will actually sell.
Question 5: How many independent places say it?
Three links to the same forum thread are one source, not three. Count the places, not the links. And notice who wrote it: a vendor describing its own product is a vendor statement — useful, but kept apart from independent evidence.
A worked example (synthetic)
- Source 1 is a local company's price page, dated last month, and the passage says "3 to 5 euros per window for private households". Kind: public webpage. Fresh. Says it. Right market. One place. → Usable as *one company's price*, not as "the market price".
- Source 2 is a national blog post with no date, and the passage talks about cleaning services in general. → Unknown age, not about windows, not about Köln. The claim "demand is growing fast" is unsupported. Treat it as a hypothesis.
What you would do next: ask five households what they paid last time, and write the answers down as your own evidence.
What a source can never tell you
Even perfect sources describe the world, not your buyers. They can't tell you whether the people you will contact will reply, ask for a quote or pay. Only a small test with real buyers shows that — and its results are your strongest evidence, because they are about your offer.
How Proofoak shows this
Proofoak labels every source in a report: whether the passage was read or only the title was seen, whether it is fresh, stale or of unknown age, and whether it is on a domain of your market. A quote that isn't found in its source is marked. Model reasoning is never labelled as verified. The rules are explained on the methodology page.
Frequently asked questions
Is a link to a source enough?
No. Open it and find the passage the claim rests on; if it isn’t there, the claim isn’t supported by that source.
What if a page has no date?
Treat it as unknown age, not as current — especially for prices and rules.
Can AI research be trusted?
Use it to find sources and ideas fast, then check the claims you will act on; a model’s reasoning is a guess to test, never a verified fact.
Sources and further reading
- U.S. SBA — Market research and competitive analysis
- Harvard Business School Online — 5 steps to validate a business idea
How we wrote this
Written and reviewed by the Proofoak Research Team on 9 November 2026. Examples are synthetic and labelled. Rules of thumb are our working recommendations, not benchmarks or legal advice. Outreach rules depend on your country and recipient — check them before you contact anyone.